The main objective of this project is to quantify the influence of climate change on the variation of reliability of harbour structures, focusing on rubble-mound breakwaters.
We will assess risk through the variation of failure probability, taking into account both the variation of climate agents due to climate change and the spatio-temporal evolution of failure modes.
Subsequently, we will identify the consequences through an economic analysis, based on adaptation, maintenance and repair strategies, applied to examples of maritime works on the spanish coast.
In order to achieve these objectives, the following specific objectives are proposed:
In relation to climate agents:
- Development of specific analytical methodologies for processing climate databases and its use in structural risk assessment, including non-stationary analysis in order to incorporate climate change effects.
- Identification of the most relevant climate agents that induce variations on the reliability of maritime works.
In relation to the structural behavior of maritime works:
- Characterization and quantification of the temporal evolution of individual failure modes in rubble-mound breakwaters.
- Development of a conceptual model for damage accumulation in rubble-mound breakwaters. The model will consider the temporal evolution of individual failure modes, the mechanisms and conditions that trigger individual failure modes and the relationship between them.
In relation to probabilistic design and verification techniques of coastal structures:
- Development of a methodology that introduces the evolution of failure modes in the verification methods considering the dynamic response of the structure along its life-cycle.
In relation to risk assessment in coastal infrastructures due to climate change and transfer of knowledge to port managers:
- Development of a methodology to characterize risk, through the variation of the probability of failure and its consequences due to climate change.
- Integration of the developed knowledge into a tool that can be used by port managers to introduce climate change effects in the portfolio of risk management.